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The LED industry in 2017 is full of uncertainties. How to analyze the development and changes of the industry in the future through the historical development track of LED in the past? The overall LED chip market has been in oversupply from shortage to oversupply, so the LED chip market has fallen into fierce price competition.
On December 21, 2017, the 2018 LED market prospect analysis meeting (shenzhen station) jointly organized by LEDinside, a subsidiary of jibang consulting co., LTD., and China LED network co., LTD., was held at JW marriott hotel in jinmao, shenzhen. The meeting was packed and packed.
Comprehensively interpret the development trend of LED industry in 2018
The analysis will take "outlook on industry transfer trend, grasp the new way of thinking" competition in the industry as the theme, LEDinside SIRS analysts and digital senior industry is small spacing, CSP, automotive lighting, LED chip competitive landscape, and other issues of comprehensive interpretation.
At the beginning of the meeting, the LEDinside research associate of TrendForce jibang consulting co., ltd. was stored in the opening speech to thank all the participants, and then all the speakers gave speeches. This article briefly summarizes the main content of each speaker's speech for readers who cannot be present in person.
The LED
2017 will be a year of uncertainty for the LED industry. On the transition track, various LED manufacturers are looking for their own positioning direction. LEDinisde analyzes the future development and changes of the industry from the history of LEDin the past.
In terms of technology, in the past, the industry focused on improving the efficiency of LED components. However, as the technology tends to mature, manufacturers will focus more on system collocation and integration in the future.
In the aspect of application, the application of the past market depends mainly on the LED efficiency and reduce the price to replace the traditional light source, the future application of gradually evolved into a LED through various features to create a new application.
In the part of the supply chain, due to the low investment threshold of LED industry in the past, there are many investors. However, with the fierce competition in the past decade, Evergrande trend of big players is obvious, and future LED suppliers are bound to have a certain scale to survive.
In the past, CSP has been used in the niche market. In 2017, it was considered as the first year of CSP. In this year, CSP began to infiltrate slowly, and began to enter some lighting products.
At this meeting, the voltwave of crystal energy photoelectric beam was introduced from four aspects: the introduction of CSP, the development trend of CSP, the characteristics of CSP technology of composite reflecting bowl and cup structure, and the progress of crystal energy photoelectricity in CSP.
LED packaging technology ranges from pin type to SMD, high power type to COB. According to liang, the next generation packaging technology is CSP. At present, CSP is divided into two types: stent and non - stent. Among them, the stents are represented by sky power, billions of light, national star and new century. The unsupported devices include samsung/Seoul semiconductor, lumileds, wafer power, SAN 'an, Japan Asia and crystal energy. Meanwhile, according to liang fubo, NICHIA predicts that all current 1W and over 1W high-power packaging products will have the opportunity to be replaced by CSP in the future, that is, the high-power is the pioneer of unsupported CSP technology.
In 2017, China's LED packaging market is expected to reach 65.9 billion yuan, up 12% year on year. On the supply side, the fastest growth is still in the mainland sector, at 15 per cent. With the rapid development of international manufacturers in the automotive field, the growth rate also reached 8%. Taiwanese manufacturers fell slightly. After several years of development, China LED packaging industry competition is gradually changing, from the international factory, Taiwan and the mainland local factory three camps, evolved into the present contract (behind international factory), made in Taiwan on the mainland factory local and mainland factory three camps, almost the same as the industry environment, market competition is still in the short term is difficult to ease.
In recent years, as the global lighting market continues to grow, the market will peak at 33.29 billion by 2019, according to LEDinside. The market for alternative lighting is saturated, and industrial, architectural, landscape, outdoor and special commercial lighting will continue to grow.
The most important leds in lighting applications are medium-power LED devices, with a market share of nearly 50% in the last three years. The middle-power LED market is dominated by PPA/PCT 2835 and EMC 3030.
Facing the challenge of sales price, PCT 2835 also has certain penetration power to EMC 3030 market.
But in terms of cost performance, the quality of EMC products is more stable than PPA and PCT products. At present, EMC is mainly positioned in the middle and high-end market. The future will be towards high power and ultra high power applications, which will penetrate more ceramic and COB markets. EMC also has its unique advantages for the future market of non-visible light.
Wu zhaohui: from LED to VCSEL laser, DPC ceramic substrate technology and application innovation
Comprehensively interpret the development trend of LED industry in 2018
Kaide technology ceramic components division director wu chaohui
For a long time, conductive materials and metals cannot be separated by thermoelectricity, while insulating materials do not dissipate heat, which has caused the problem of thermoelectricity separation for power LED in the past. In order to solve this problem, we need products that can both heat dissipation and thermoelectric separation. Dongguan KaiChang zhao-hui wu DE ceramics division, has solution to solve this problem so far, but there are copper heat sink and chip large difference of thermal expansion coefficient, thermal mismatch stress big, poor heat conduction thermal resistance, such as insulating layer thin deficiency. In order to optimize these shortcomings, kettrix launched DPC ceramic substrate, that is, directly coated copper ceramic substrate.
In addition to the application of LED lighting field, on the blue ocean market UVLED, VCSEL, zhao-hui wu is introduced, the current UV LED encapsulation cannot contain organic matter, the main packaging scheme mainly ceramic + metal DAMS glue binder and HTCC high temperature co-firing ceramic substrates are two kinds of schemes. However, the two solutions have the disadvantages of organic matter, non-waterproof and warped deformation and high cost of substrate respectively, which can be solved by the 3D forming DPC substrate of kettrix. As for the VCSEL part, wu said that the advantage of dhui PC is more incisive and incisive.
Wang ting: analysis of China's auto lamp market trend 2018
Comprehensively interpret the development trend of LED industry in 2018
Wang ting, senior analyst at LEDinside
The Chinese passenger car market has a high acceptance of LED, especially when the lamps can express the characteristics of the vehicle, which is the main power that the car factory is willing to introduce. In 2017, China's passenger car LED production is expected to reach nearly 740 million us dollars. In terms of long-term growth, the two products will be headlamps and fog lamps by 2020.
In the new energy car segment, the Chinese government's subsidy measures will increasingly focus on high performance and low energy consumption products, and the implementation of the double points policy will have a huge impact on the Chinese automobile industry. The rapid development of new energy vehicles will make the energy saving demand of headlamps more significant and play a positive role in promoting the introduction of LED headlights.
At present in front of the Chinese car market, dominated by international companies LED supplier, but manufacturers are through the acquisition of local methods such as integration of industrial chain, the future is expected from front loading market into the domestic vehicle supply chain gradually.
In recent years, with the rapid growth of LED display products, LED display technology has also been continuously improving. From the initial large indoor outdoor screen to the large increase of small spacing LED display in recent years, the technology has been continuously upgraded and the screen spacing is getting smaller and smaller, and minshield and MicroLED technology have begun to emerge.
According to LEDinside data, the global LED display market in 2017 is usd 50.92 billion, among which the indoor small space (less than or equal to P2.5) market is usd 1.141 billion, and the compound growth rate is expected to be 12% in 2017-2021.
Micro level of the LED and if arrive, its application to intelligent wear small size and AR/VR, the large size of the tablet and TV, in the end whether it can used in smartphones depends on can progress of technology and cost, in accordance with radical prediction research institutions, the demand of 2021-2025 epitaxial wafer will be in 1 million pieces to 9 million pieces of 6 inches per year.
As the display space is getting smaller, new requirements have been put forward for LED chips. When entering a minshield, the chip will need to be upgraded from the original small spacing to the inverted RGB chip to meet the higher parameter requirements due to the need for lower thermal resistance, better vision and higher reliability. Jiang-bo wang, said about the higher demands of flip chip RGB chip, its key technology is mainly contains of P type reflective and extension layer production, insulation layer production area lies between N/P connection, easy to welding design and technology four red substrate transfer technology.
By MicroLED level, the technical requirements higher, its core is the main key technology is mainly the height of the epitaxial material consistency, accuracy control of micron grade chip production and yield, transfer of a huge amount of indicates rate, the effective implementation of full-color, control circuit, drive and lagging design and effective repair aspect of bad points.